A Fast Start to a Packed Session
For anyone following the Oregon legislature closely, this is the phase of the session where you find yourself drinking out of a fire hose. On Tuesday, lawmakers began their long, five-month session, diving straight into the daily routine of committee hearings and stakeholder meetings. Unlike past sessions, there’s no easing into session with committees receiving introductory briefings—this year, it’s straight to business, with hearings tackling serious, and, at times, controversial topics from day one.
Why This Session Feels Different
The legislature’s accelerated start is likely no coincidence. During the last three long sessions, Republicans either staged walkouts or employed stall tactics, such as requiring bills be read in full before their final vote, effectively grinding the legislative process to a halt. It is anybody's guess if they will happen again.
These tactics give the minority party some leverage over the session. Although Republicans cannot set the agenda, they can influence the pace of the session and delay the ability to timely advance bills. While the presiding officers appear to no longer entertain “kill lists" to return the chambers to regular order, running out the clock can meaningfully neutralize the ability for some bills to fall through the cracks. With the unpredictability of stall tactics looming, committees seem eager to make progress ahead of the eventual drama.
It might seem counterintuitive to be thinking about the legislative timeline when it seems like there is an infinite amount of time before the legislature adjourns. By tackling significant issues early, as seems to be the case, the legislature may be trying to reduce the risk of running out of time down the road due to disruptions.
Major Issues on the Agenda
Like any other session, there are no shortages of big-ticket items for lawmakers to address. Over the next five months, the legislature will need to carefully craft the next biennial budget. Unlike Washington state, which faces a substantial budget shortfall, Oregon is experiencing strong revenue growth and a surplus of $2.27 billion.
Oregon’s revenue surplus should mute serious calls for across-the-board tax increases; however, the legislature is still poised to tackle substantial funding conversations during its session. Oregon’s provider tax on hospitals and certain insurers to fund Medicaid needs reauthorization. The state’s transportation agency is running deficits for essential operations and is behind on infrastructure projects. And the legislature needs to renew the state’s annual tax on timber harvests.
While there is agreement these taxes are essential, any vote—including on historically bipartisan issues—is inherently contentious. Oregon’s status as one of the nation’s highest-taxed states adds to the stakes and could potentially complicate any of the session’s tax measures. Democrats might hold enough seats to unilaterally pass new or increased taxes, a partisan vote can bring baggage of its own. Interest groups could collect signatures to refer a controversial measure to voters, forcing lawmakers and their allies to defend tax hikes to an electorate that seems, at best, lukewarm to taxes.
The Flood of Unlimited Bill Drafts
There are plenty of bills introduced for the session to raise just about anyone’s eyebrow. During the interim, legislative leaders considered proposals to limit the number of bills lawmakers could introduce for the session but failed to reach an agreement. The result is a deluge of proposed legislation, including many that will inevitably spark intense debates and heightened scrutiny. Whether these bills make it onto a committee agenda is another question entirely, but the sheer volume adds to the chaotic and often frantic pace of the session.
What to Watch For
The next five months promise to be unpredictable and consequential. Budgets, taxes, and some lawmakers wanting Oregon to lead the “resistance” to a second term for President Trump and a Republican-led Congress will likely play a central role in the session’s politics. Democrats and Republicans will, at times, battle each other and, at others, play nice. The policies that live and die along the way represent sausage-making at its finest.