Waiting for a Defining Issue in 2025
The Takeaway
Oregon lawmakers introduce thousands of laws each session, shaping policies touching every corner of the state. In recent sessions, a single bill or issue regularly rises above the rest, acting as a gravitational force pulling the legislature’s attention and driving its politics.
In 2017, a landmark transportation package raised taxes to fund major infrastructure projects. Two years later, the focus shifted to education funding, as lawmakers passed a sweeping business tax to infuse billions of dollars into public schools. The 2021 session was defined by the economic response to the pandemic, with the legislature managing billions of federal relief dollars. And, in 2023, the legislature made reproductive rights the feature of the session.
Each of those sessions had a clear focal point from the beginning. At this point of the 2025 session, however, the legislature has yet to rally around a single defining issue. Transportation funding, education, and housing are all in play for this role, but none have emerged as the dominant force shaping the session. Any of them could take the wheel, but, for now, it feels like we are in a self-driving car, waiting to see where the session takes us.
White House Order Temporarily “Freezing” Funds Spurs Chaos, Confusion
State leaders found themselves trying to rapidly understand and respond to this week’s directive from the U.S. Office of Management & Budget, which temporarily halted federal grant and loan payments. Since states regularly serve as the funnel to disperse federal funding for programs nationwide, state agencies and budget leaders were scurrying to understand the directive’s impact.
It is difficult to overstate the importance of federal funds in Oregon’s budget-writing process. These funds comprise roughly a third of the total funds the state directs through its biennial budget, impacting most segments of state government and the overall economy. The state’s ability to invest in critical policy areas, such as education, healthcare, or transportation, often hinges on access to these funds.
Only a week ago, it felt as if the changing of the guard in Washington, D.C., would play only a secondary political role in this year’s session. Oregon Democrats spent much of President Trump’s first term isolating the state from and responding to federal rollbacks in environmental protection, access to reproductive care, and immigration law enforcement. Now, although the directive was rescinded, if lawmakers foresee threats to precious federal funding, reacting to federal politics could return as one of the session’s lead characters.
Looking Ahead
The session is still in its early stage, and lawmakers are working to get their sea legs, but the legislative calendar does not provide time for dilly-dallying. In a few weeks, on February 26, lawmakers will receive the latest revenue forecast. While often overlooked as a point-in-time check on state revenues, the forecast will set the stage for most of the session’s funding and spending conversations. Then, a few weeks later, on March 21, the legislature will face its first crossover deadline, where committees must start working bills or otherwise watch them die for the session. These dates might feel a way out, but they always find a way to sneak up quickly.
